Crypto YouTuber VirtualBacon has used a sober short-form May 2026 update to argue that the bitcoin bear-market bottom has not yet been printed, pegging the 200-week simple moving average around US$60,500 as the level at which the asset becomes genuinely cheap, and warning altcoin buyers to wait for a deeper Bitcoin flush before deploying capital.
The trader noted that every previous cycle - 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022 - has tagged or breached the 200-week simple moving average before turning, and this cycle has not. 'Every single cycle, we have gone to the 200 weekly simple moving average... this bear market we did not go there yet,' he said. He stopped short of insisting the level must be tagged, but framed the absence as a reason for caution: 'Does it have to go there? No. But is bitcoin cheap? Also no. If bitcoin goes to the 200-week SMA, then it is cheap.'
In the short term, VirtualBacon described bitcoin as in a daily uptrend so long as it holds above its US$74,000 prior weekly close. The chart, on his read, can absolutely push to US$85,000 in May, but every upside leg between current levels and the 50-week simple moving average around US$95,700 sits inside heavy resistance - including the 200-day SMA near US$83,900 and a triple-tested supply zone from late 2025.
His own positioning is conservative. 'I have 80% in bitcoin already since way down here in the 65K and under range,' he said, with the remaining 20% held in cash for an opportunistic deeper flush. He explicitly framed buying at current levels as expensive on a cycle-relative basis: 'If you have bitcoin, you hold it. If you don't have bitcoin, don't buy particularly a lot this month. You can set a very slow DCA... but don't try to buy a lot this month because this month, relatively speaking, compared to the bear market levels and the bear market cheap prices, it's expensive.'
He assigned a higher than 50% probability to a return to the low US$60,000s within months, arguing the risk-reward at current prices is unattractive. 'From 78K to 60K, it's a decent amount of a drop. And from here until the confirmation of the bull market, it's about the same percentage point. It's about 20% away from confirmation of the bull market and it's about 20% away from bitcoin being cheap again. So it's right in the middle. It's the highest risk to do anything.'
Where VirtualBacon is most outspoken is on altcoins. He uses the TOTAL2/Bitcoin ratio - the market cap of all altcoins excluding stablecoins divided by Bitcoin's market cap - and pegs the 0.36 to 0.41 band as the historical range at which altcoins become genuinely cheap relative to Bitcoin. The ratio has not yet reached that zone but, on the current trajectory, he believes it could land there 'by the end of May, early June'.
He argued the trade is conditional on both signals firing simultaneously: 'If bitcoin comes back down to the low 60Ks or even below the 200-week SMA and the TOTAL2 versus bitcoin ratio comes back down to below 0.4, that will be my sign to buy altcoins.' Names he singled out for accumulation under those conditions are Ethereum, Solana, BNB, XRP and Tron - the large-cap floor of the altcoin market rather than narrative-driven smaller tokens.
VirtualBacon was candid about the optical pain of the trade. He warned that by the time the conditions hit, sentiment will be at cycle-low extremes: 'Everyone will be saying, oh my god, crypto is so dead. Do you really think another bull run is coming? And I will tell you guys, hey, yes, because this is what we have been planning if that happens.'
The risk he flagged on his own framework is straightforward: if bitcoin instead grinds straight to US$96,000 and altcoins rally without a flush, his cash sits idle. 'I would miss... that would be a little bit sad,' he conceded. 'Although I already have 80% of my portfolio in bitcoin, so my portfolio will be fine.' For investors with no current Bitcoin exposure, he framed the conservative path as a slow six-month DCA rather than aggressive May buying.